Fossil energy emissions to hit record levels in 2025

The Global Carbon Project estimates fossil fuel emissions at 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2025.

While energy systems are becoming more electrified and cleaner in many countries, the pace is not enough to meet the world economy’s growing appetite for energy. At the same time, emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, are projected to fall to 4.1 billion tonnes, making total emissions slightly lower than last year.

With the end of the El Niño weather pattern, natural carbon sinks such as forests and soils have begun to return toward normal levels. Yet warming continues to weaken these sinks over time: the study finds that around eight percent of the rise in atmospheric CO₂ since 1960 stems from declining carbon uptake in land and ocean ecosystems.

According to the study and a related article published in Nature, the remaining carbon budget that would keep warming to 1.5 degrees has effectively been exhausted. Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are expected to reach 425.7 parts per million this year – 52 percent above pre-industrial levels.

The research was led by Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter. He says the 1.5-degree goal is no longer realistic at the current pace: the remaining 170-billion-tonne carbon budget will run out before 2030 unless emissions fall sharply. Professor Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia also notes that although 35 countries have managed to grow their economies while cutting emissions, global progress remains far too slow.

Glen Peters of CICERO points out that ten years have passed since the Paris Agreement, yet fossil emissions continue to climb. At the same time, climate change is beginning to show up in natural carbon sinks, underscoring the urgency of emission cuts. Julia Pongratz, professor at LMU Munich, highlights that efforts to curb deforestation – for example in the Amazon – are paying off, but ecosystems will remain vulnerable unless warming is limited.

According to the study, China’s emissions will rise by 0.4 percent this year and India’s by 1.4 percent, both more moderate increases than before. In the United States and the EU, emissions are expected to rise due to cold weather and higher energy demand. In Japan, emissions continue to fall. All major categories of fossil fuel emissions are increasing: coal by 0.8 percent, oil by 1 percent and gas by 1.3 percent. Emissions from international aviation will grow by 6.8 percent, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

The report notes that emissions from deforestation have averaged around four billion tonnes a year over the past decade, with forest regrowth compensating for only about half of them. In total, global CO₂ emissions have grown more slowly in the past ten years than in the decade before, but they are still rising.

The 2025 Global Carbon Budget report is an annual update produced by an international team of more than 130 researchers.