Expanding paternity leave increased fathers’ participation but not birth rates

The flexibility enabled by four Finnish paternity leave reforms increased fathers’ use of parental leave in the 2000s, but the reforms had little effect on couples staying together or having a second child, according to new research.

In his study Effects of paternity leave reforms on family structure, Labore’s senior researcher Lauro Carnicelli examined the paternity leave reforms of 2001, 2003, 2007, and 2010, assessing how they affected family stability – meaning the continuation of marriages or cohabiting relationships – and the likelihood of having a second child.

“Flexible timing seems to be a key factor in fathers’ participation. At the same time, the results show that expanding paternity leave had almost no effects on family structure or fertility,” Carnicelli notes.

Paternity leave reforms have been part of broader efforts to promote gender equality and increase fathers’ involvement in early childcare. They have also raised questions about whether such reforms can influence family structures or fertility rates in the long term.

Flexibility in leave had limited impact on family structures

The study found that reforms increasing fathers’ flexibility in scheduling their leave clearly boosted leave uptake. The 2010 reform, in particular, increased the likelihood that young parents would have a second child and stay together.

However, when viewed as a whole, the reforms did not broadly affect family stability or future fertility. The findings underline that the impact of family leave policies may remain limited if the goal is to change family structures or increase birth rates.

The research drew on register-based data from Kela (the Finnish Social Insurance Institution) and Statistics Finland, using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) approach to assess the causal effects of specific policy changes.